Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan fails to tackle synthetic fertiliser overuse and its climate, nature and health impacts

Investors have a key role to play in driving the transition to regenerative agriculture in Brazil

• Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan aims to reduce the country’s dependence on imported synthetic fertiliser by increasing domestic production but lacks clear targets for reducing synthetic fertiliser overuse.
• Brazil’s fertiliser-related GHG emissions could increase by 89% by 2050 with similar growth in harmful water and air pollution if demand for fertiliser is not reduced.
• Planet Tracker analysis shows that reducing synthetic fertiliser use – through regenerative agriculture and other actions – could cut Brazil’s fertiliser-related GHG emissions by up to 86% by 2050, presenting a significant opportunity for financial institutions to support this transition.

London, April 16, 2025 – New research from Planet Tracker, reveals that Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan (PNF) focuses on reducing the country’s reliance on imported synthetic fertiliser by increasing domestic production, but lacks clear targets for curbing the overuse of synthetic fertiliser and the significant negative climate, nature and health impacts this causes. However, there are significant opportunities for investors to support a transition to regenerative agriculture and other measures that would reduce synthetic fertiliser use in Brazil.

Brazil is one of the world’s top producers of agricultural commodities, partly driven by the widespread use of synthetic fertiliser. Its PNF aims to decrease reliance on synthetic fertiliser imports – which currently accounts for 86% of national fertiliser use.

The report, Brazil’s fertiliser risks: identifying innovation and investment opportunities, finds that synthetic fertiliser use in Brazil emits between 79 Mt CO₂e and 83 Mt CO₂e each year, equivalent to 7% of national emissions in 2021. Almost half (47%) of these GHG emissions are from the production of imported fertiliser, which are not captured in national carbon accounting systems.

The water pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with synthetic fertiliser overuse negatively impact Brazil’s natural capital, including soil health, on which the country’s agricultural sector depends. This poses a risk to financial institutions investing in the Brazilian economy and the agribusiness sector in particular. Planet Tracker’s previous report Food Giants & Fertiliser Risk highlighted that global food system companies are failing to adequately disclose risks associated with fertiliser overuse.

The analysis estimates that synthetic fertiliser-related emissions could increase by 89% by 2050 compared to 2021, in a scenario where domestic fertiliser production is increased under the PNF and demand for synthetic fertiliser continues to grow. Increasing domestic synthetic fertiliser production means that Brazil would have to report the associated GHG emissions which are currently excluded when fertiliser is produced abroad. This would make it more difficult for Brazil to achieve its net zero ambitions and would result in increased fertiliser-related pollution, harming human health, ecosystems and the country’s economy.

An Alternative Vision for Brazil’s Agriculture Sector

Planet Tracker finds that Brazil’s synthetic fertiliser-linked GHG emissions could be reduced by up to 86% in 2050, in a scenario where demand for synthetic fertiliser decreases by 60% in 2050 compared to a 2021 baseline (see Fig.1).

This analysis highlights that regenerative agriculture techniques are a key way of reducing the demand for synthetic fertiliser, reducing GHG emissions by 46 Mt CO2e by 2050, through the use of organic fertiliser, intercropping and crop rotation with nitrogen fixing plants and other techniques to improve soil health. The use of bio-inoculants (nitrogen fixing bacteria applied to crop seeds) are another significant fertiliser demand reduction measure, saving 13 Mt of CO2e if applied at scale.  Reducing use of synthetic fertiliser would not only decrease fertiliser-related water and air pollution, improving the health of Brazil’s ecosystems and citizens, but also significantly cut input costs for farmers.

Figure 1: The impact of demand-reduction and GHG emissions mitigation measure to reduce fertiliser-related GHG emissions in Brazil (Source: Planet Tracker)

How Financial Institutions Can Affect Change

This report highlights that financial institutions have a crucial role to play in encouraging Brazilian food system companies to address the negative impacts associated with the overuse of synthetic fertiliser.

• Sovereign bond investors should:
  • Engage with the Brazilian government, and the Ministries of Agriculture and of the Environment to submit an updated National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan before the end of June 2025, which is aligned with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
  • Engage with the Ministry of the Economy – Industry, Foreign Trade and Services to update the National Fertiliser Plan to include a target to reduce synthetic fertiliser use by 20% by 2030, and by at least 70% by 2050.
• Financial institutions should:
  • Engage with Brazilian food producers and their international customers to include Scope 1 and 3 fertiliser emissions in their GHG emissions disclosures and net zero plans and targets by 2026.
  • Commit to channel 20% of direct and indirect funding for agricultural production to support regenerative agriculture practices by 2030.

Emma Amadi, Senior Research Analyst, Planet Tracker

“The overuse of synthetic fertiliser in Brazil poses significant nature and climate risks to the country’s agricultural sector and the economy more broadly. This report calls on financial institutions to support the transition to a more sustainable and regenerative agricultural system to reduce synthetic fertiliser use and improve the health of the nation’s ecosystems and citizens.”

-ENDS-

Read the full report here.

For more information, please contact: 

Bee O’Hara, ESG Communications | t: + 44 (0)7580 743 364| planettracker@esgcomms.com

Sally Palmer, Head of Communications, Planet Tracker | t: + 44 (0)7799472824 | sally@planet-tracker.org

About Planet Tracker

Planet Tracker is an award-winning non-profit financial think tank aligning capital markets with planetary boundaries. Created with the vision of a financial system that is fully aligned with a net-zero, resilient, nature positive, and just economy well before 2050, Planet Tracker generates break-through analytics that reveal both the role of capital markets in the degradation of our ecosystem and show the opportunities of transitioning to a zero-carbon, nature positive economy.